This article is part of our “Thinking Like a Futurist” series exploring how Strategic Foresight helps leaders prepare for what’s next. Here, we introduce the concept of Horizon Scanning, show how it can help you spot early signals of change, and explain why that matters. If you haven’t read the intro article yet, we recommend starting there for broader context and understanding.
Have you ever looked back on a major shift or event and thought, “How did I not see that coming?” Whether it’s a new competitor, a sudden market shift, or an emerging customer trend, the clarity of hindsight can reveal dots we just didn’t know were connected.
It’s a familiar feeling for many leaders, where change seems invisible until it’s impossible to ignore. But looking back, the signs were usually there all along. From news stories and social chatter to cultural shifts and even personal experiences, signals of change are all around us. We just need to stay open and curious enough to see them.
This is the essence of Horizon Scanning, which is a foundational practice in Strategic Foresight that helps us tune into those early signals of change before they turn into full-blown trends. In this article, we’ll explore what Horizon Scanning is, why it matters, and how you can start applying it today.
What is Horizon Scanning?
At its core, Horizon Scanning is the ongoing process of looking for early signals that something new, different, or disruptive is on its way. These signals can come from any source in any sector, which is why foresight professionals often use frameworks like STEEP Analysis (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political) to organize what they’re seeing and make sense of what it all means.
A quick note before moving on: Strategic Foresight leverages a variety of structured processes and tactics like STEEP Analysis. For now, this article series will be focused on concepts and foundational building blocks that anyone can start using today. But if you’re interested in diving deeper into the tactics, our “Think Like a Futurist” cohorts and Strategic Foresight Workshops are designed to walk you through the nuances and details.
From a big-picture perspective, the practice of Horizon Scanning is simply widening your field of vision. Instead of focusing only on what’s directly in front of you and things you consider directly relevant today, you begin exploring what’s happening in the broader environment around you. Think beyond your own business landscape to observe trends, events, and headlines from other industries, sectors, and society in general. Make note of anything that piques your interest, makes you wonder, or just catches your attention. Don’t worry about connecting the dots right away or forcing things to make sense. Just observe, notice, and flag topics that stand out.
If this sounds like a pointless exercise because it’s not actionable today, then you’re on the right track. It can seem counterintuitive, but freeing yourself from the need to understand or apply labels is how you’ll catch early signals of change that others missed.
Many foresight practitioners use a tool called Signal Journaling, where they make a running list of interesting articles, unique ideas, or subtle shifts as they notice them. That list may appear random and disjointed. But eventually, patterns can begin to form. It’s those patterns that reveal where new possibilities or challenges may be developing.
Real-world Example:
Years before “plant-based” became a mainstream food category, early signals appeared in small startups, niche online communities, and independent restaurants experimenting with alternative recipes. There were also stories within the meat industry about environmental impact, sustainability, and animal rights concerns that made national headlines. Companies paying attention to those signals, like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods, positioned themselves ahead of the curve long before the trend went mainstream.
Why Horizon Scanning Matters
In a fast-moving world, disruption rarely happens in an instant (even though it feels like it does). Rather, it builds quietly piece by piece across industries and geographies. Horizon Scanning helps you see those signals of change before the pieces form a complete picture.
For businesses, that means:
- Spotting potential threats early enough to prepare and stay proactive.
- Pursuing new opportunities before competitors even recognize them.
- Informing long-term strategy with fresh, future-facing insights.
When done consistently, this process helps leaders turn uncertainty into an advantage. It also supports cross-functional alignment. When teams share what they’re observing, they start speaking the same language about the future. The exercise itself builds awareness and curiosity across the organization, strengthening your collective foresight muscle.
Real-world Example:
Netflix famously began noticing early signals that digital streaming was gaining traction while DVDs were still the norm. Across other unrelated industries, consumers started prioritizing things like convenience, flexibility, personalization, and wider variety. On top of that, emerging technologies were creating new expectations and leading to disruption for legacy brands.
Rather than waiting for the market to shift, they used foresight to justify a pivot and reinvented themselves as a streaming platform. This turned a potential disruption into a defining opportunity and competitive advantage.
How to Start Horizon Scanning
Don’t overthink this process. Horizon Scanning is less about applying a Strategic Foresight practice, and more about simply removing thought boundaries, increasing awareness, and seeing through a lens of possibility rather than probability. What matters most is building a habit of curiosity and observation. Here are a few practical ways to get started:
1. Make a signal journal.
Begin documenting articles, headlines, technologies, or conversations that catch your attention, even if they seem unrelated to your industry. Over time, review these entries to identify recurring themes or ideas. When patterns emerge, they hold clues about emerging change.
2. Broaden your information sources.
If all your inputs come from within your industry, you’ll only ever see what your competitors already know. Start listening to new podcasts, browse niche publications, look at international headlines, and even keep an eye on the often confusing TikTok trends. This will help expand your information diet to capture a more diverse range of signals.
3. Host regular scanning sessions.
Whether it’s a monthly meeting or a quick 15-minute team check-in, carve out time to share observations with each other. The more perspectives you include, the richer the discussion becomes. Horizon Scanning works best when it’s collaborative, not siloed.
The Secret Sauce: Curiosity and Openness
The biggest opportunity in Horizon Scanning isn’t being “right”, it’s about being ready. Many organizations struggle because they filter out ideas that seem too far-fetched or irrelevant. But often, today’s fringe is tomorrow’s mainstream.
So, rather than dismissing signals that feel unusual, lean into them. Ask questions. Explore the “what ifs.” You’re not trying to predict what will happen, you’re expanding your awareness of what is happening. Every signal you notice broadens your strategic perspective. Over time, this curiosity compounds into sharper insights, better decisions, and a stronger ability to design the future with intention.
Final Thoughts
Horizon Scanning and spotting signals of change is just the beginning. Once you start noticing new patterns and possibilities, the next step is to examine the assumptions shaping how you interpret them.
In Part 2 of our series, “Challenge What You Think You Know,” we’ll explore how our existing beliefs and blind spots can influence what we see – and what we miss.
If you’re ready for a deeper dive, our Think Like a Futurist cohorts and Strategic Foresight Workshops are designed to help your team build foresight capabilities that translate into confident, forward-focused decisions. Let’s schedule time for an intro call to discuss how Strategic Foresight can help future-proof your business!
